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Not obvious this works though. 70% is herd immunity threshold when there is no epidemic. With an active epidemic it may be 95%.Here are some epidemiologists arguing that: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/...
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
HN
The comment above is overstated, but more or less correct. All the naive herd immunity calculations assume a well-mixed population. A large fraction of recovered and immune young people will protect t...
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
HN
Other highlights:Death rate for under-45 is under 0.024%Look at the "Deaths incidence" tab of the graphs at the bottom to see actual deaths with the curve-fit model.EDIT: Meant to include in...
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
The princess cruise ship study also gave an IFR (for China) of 0.5%, and an early epidemiological modeling study put the symptomatic CFR at 1.4% which would imply 0.7% IFR assuming it's 50% symptomati...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
Flu is generally well under 0.1% of those infected on average. If you're comparing them you want to either include or exclude asymptotic people from both populations. "Symptomatic Illnesses" https://w...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
It seems the CDC has different data depending on where you look. The 45 million / 61,000 numbers are here, for the 2017-2018 season, see Figure 2:https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.htmlAnd on ...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
HN
Bear in mind that the CDC estimate of 45 million influenza cases[1] is the number of symptomatic cases, and therefore it doesn't really make sense to directly compare that with Covid-19 IFR rates calc...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
Sure, phone surveys for political purposes (presidential approval ratings etc.) have to deal with that all of the time. There are methods for estimating non-response impact. [0] One method of mitigati...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
HN
> Here, it's closer to a random sample,
but more importantly it shows really
high rates. Those rates overwhelm any error
due to false positives.I'm not seeing that, at least not from what I've s...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
What I learned from an article of a major German newspaper is that in order to really estimate the quality of testing, two criteria are important: sensitivity and specifity of the applied test.If the ...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
HN
Is there a write-up for this study? Or anywhere with data/methodology released?Also, is this particularly good news? Using the raw numbers from the headline and the deaths from here https://www1.nyc.g...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
Sweden didn't lockdown and might have herd immunity in weeks, according to their chief epidemiologist. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out in the long run."In major parts of Sweden, around ...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
It's actually important to point out, the CDC is very explicit that they are estimating flu illnesses, in their own words "an estimated 34 million people had symptomatic influenza illness"Ma...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
HN
In comparing the COVID-19 IFR to the flu IFR, it is important to remember that flu vaccines are widely available and limit the spread of influenza. For example, CDC retrospectives for 2018-9 estimate ...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
HN
> But to get from 7% (hospitalized to confirmed) to 1 in 500 is a factor of 35.This is broadly in the range implied by a number of measures across the entire population. 20x for randomized population...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
HN
At this point people advocating the position you're advocating for are in a state of denial (this is my opinion, not a matter of fact, obviously). Your assumption is that we can effectively prevent th...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
HN
Not sure why you added the lower limit at 15. The two high risk age groups from influenza are 65+ and under 5. If I recall correctly, pediatric flu deaths are the only ones tracked by the CDC (for oth...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
HN
I don't think anyone disagrees that the sample has bias. On the other hand, since the majority of people have no choice but to grocery shop in person, I do not think the sample is as tilted as you im...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
It will probably be significantly higher than 60%, since COVID-19's R0 without lockdown seems to be pretty high. The CDC has estimated it at 5.7 [0]. Herd immunity threshold = 1 - 1/R0, so the thresho...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
HN
Regardless of initial estimates, how is 0.6% - 1% "closer inline" to 0.026%[1]? Even based upon the low range that's 30X more fatal.[1] http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8406723.stm...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
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