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I disagree. It's simply too early to make that determination.The Spanish Flu had a estimated infection fatality ratio of >2.5% (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/1/05-0979_article). As another comm...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
HN
The city itself actually estimates a total of 15,411 deaths so far the the figure is already closer to 0.9%, and there are still people dying in the city every day so will likely end up a bit higher (...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
HN
If this study is accurate, then 1.8 million NYC resident are infected. So 15 411 deaths (as of today, including 5 121 probable deaths) suggests COVID-19 has a fatality rate of MINIMUM 0.9% which is in...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
HN
60-85%1-1/R0Most commonly the R0 of is assumed to be 2.5-3.0, but estimates range up to 6.5.https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/27/2/taaa021/5735319...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
I was specifically referring to something with the same "whoa, that means it's really fast" mindshare as the i7/i9 has. Do laymen really look at phone CPU models the same way that people use...
show context + On: If a MacBook Pro runs hot or shows high kernel CPU, try char
show context + On: If a MacBook Pro runs hot or shows high kernel CPU, try char
HN
Here are the facts as we have them.From https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/ Japan admits to about 10,000 cases now, with a doubling time of about 11 days so they will admit to 20,...
show context + On: An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus
show context + On: An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus
HN
I found a source[0]. Stanford was testing a larger population to get an estimate of the spread.[0] https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/04/04/stanford-researcher......
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
Note that Euromomo reporting is seriously delayed for probably most countries. Here are Dutch numbers that include better estimates for week 14https://twitter.com/DToshkov/status/1249693421201129480ht...
show context + On: Latest EURO MOMO data shows excess all-cause mortality in so
show context + On: Latest EURO MOMO data shows excess all-cause mortality in so
HN
Paper:https://srcd.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/cdev.1...If I'm reading the results table in the linked paper correctly, it seems that household wealth was only a significant predictor of ...
show context + On: Poverty, not trauma, affects cognitive function in refugee y
show context + On: Poverty, not trauma, affects cognitive function in refugee y
HN
Interesting article. In late March I built a simple SEIRD model for a few US states with python. It was very difficult to estimate R0. R0 is essentially Beta/Gamma, where Beta^-1 is is time between co...
show context + On: The Metric We Need to Manage Covid-19
show context + On: The Metric We Need to Manage Covid-19
HN
> This study tries to estimate Rt in several European countries from the death rates though there are issues with those statistics too: https://imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19estimates/Most ob...
show context + On: The Metric We Need to Manage Covid-19
show context + On: The Metric We Need to Manage Covid-19
HN
If you look at test results you probably won't learn much. There will be far fewer tests than cases and most cases will never be tested. It seems more likely that you'll just be measuring some other e...
show context + On: The Metric We Need to Manage Covid-19
show context + On: The Metric We Need to Manage Covid-19
The thought occurred to me as well, I got a strong sense of "playing with fire." However, viruses have a very high mutation rate as it is [1], so I'm not sure how much difference it makes.Bt...
show context + On: Study: Severe Covid-19 Cases Don't Respond to Hydroxychloroq
show context + On: Study: Severe Covid-19 Cases Don't Respond to Hydroxychloroq
Eric Weinstein also has a podcast of his own, the most recent episode of which features his original lecture detailing the Geometric Unity model he discussed on Rogan (though even the dumbed-down vers...
show context + On: What concept would improve everybody's cognitive toolkit? Ka
show context + On: What concept would improve everybody's cognitive toolkit? Ka
HN
Link to the actual paper:https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1473-3099%2820...Estimates are in the last column of Table 1 (page 5).These seem roughly in line with CDC estimates for the US, s...
show context + On: Covid-19: death rate is 0.66% and increases with age, study
show context + On: Covid-19: death rate is 0.66% and increases with age, study
HN
These numbers seem much more realistic versus the previous doomsday predictions of 3%. To compare this to base rates, the age adjusted base rate for deaths in the US in 2018 was about 0.7%[0]. Dependi...
show context + On: Covid-19: death rate is 0.66% and increases with age, study
show context + On: Covid-19: death rate is 0.66% and increases with age, study
HN
Let's presume this death rate is accurate to within an order of 2- 1.33% to 0.33%. We can use that to do some interesting estimates on the true infection rate.https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus...
show context + On: Covid-19: death rate is 0.66% and increases with age, study
show context + On: Covid-19: death rate is 0.66% and increases with age, study
We can argue about specific examples, but I think you can more easily accept errors in your estimate so:First, there are 12 not 11 known deaths. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamond_Princess_(ship)Se...
show context + On: Covid-19: death rate is 0.66% and increases with age, study
show context + On: Covid-19: death rate is 0.66% and increases with age, study
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