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Just in support of your argument, new data is showing that the fatality rate is lower then previously estimated, due to a large number of undetected cases.Just one example, tests of pregnant women com...
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
HN
That's almost certainly untrue. Recent studies have show that as many as 38% of the Italian population has been infected at this point [1]. That gives a fatality rate 0.03%. Let's say the official dea...
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
HN
What's your source for 2%? A recent study which was featured on Hacker News estimated the infection fatality rate at 0.66%. [1]I have seen a number of studies putting the case fatality rate at 2-3%, b...
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
That's a good question. If control measures are undertaken to "flatten the curve" down to the capacity of the medical system, we'd expect to see new infections per day and deaths per day le...
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
HN
That's because worldometer data is community reported. This data comes from the states (mostly):https://covidtracking.com/...
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
HN
Something weird happened in California, where 20% of their tests were coming back positive, then all the sudden 04/04/2020 they started seeing <10% positive tests:https://raw.githubusercontent.com/let...
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
HN
This entire plan is based on models that do not align with what we are seeing. The graph on slide two[1] of the official CA govt plan shows hospitalizations With Intervention rising exponentially, exc...
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
HN
> Another view is that opening the economy should involve testing people who are NOT symptomatic.Testing people with symptoms is a waste of tests. When tests are in short supply assume everyone with s...
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
There is data suggesting that the current number of recognized infections is just 6% of the total infection count. This also means that case fatality rates are vastly overstated, since the rate would ...
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
HN
I found a source[0]. Stanford was testing a larger population to get an estimate of the spread.[0] https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/04/04/stanford-researcher......
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
Too early to tell there.https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/virus-deaths-rise-sw...> For weeks, the numbers of COVID-19 cases and fatalities were proportionally similar between Sweden and Denmark...
show context + On: Latest EURO MOMO data shows excess all-cause mortality in so
show context + On: Latest EURO MOMO data shows excess all-cause mortality in so
Sweden is on the same track as Switzerland, but about a week behind. They will probably show up on the map in either 1 or 2 weeks.http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/...
show context + On: Latest EURO MOMO data shows excess all-cause mortality in so
show context + On: Latest EURO MOMO data shows excess all-cause mortality in so
HN
We were mostly lucky to have about four times as many ventilators as France or Italy.The numbers I read in two different sources: Germany has about 20,000 ventilator places, while France, Italy, Spain...
show context + On: Latest EURO MOMO data shows excess all-cause mortality in so
show context + On: Latest EURO MOMO data shows excess all-cause mortality in so
They've taken some mitigation steps - closing high schools and universities, banning large gatherings, encouraging work from home, social distancing, etc. It's also unclear if it's working:https://abc...
show context + On: Latest EURO MOMO data shows excess all-cause mortality in so
show context + On: Latest EURO MOMO data shows excess all-cause mortality in so
HN
The Office for National Statistics is gathering lots of data for the England and Wales (but not NI or Scotland). (There's some lag in the ONS data)."The provisional number of deaths registered i...
show context + On: Latest EURO MOMO data shows excess all-cause mortality in so
show context + On: Latest EURO MOMO data shows excess all-cause mortality in so
HN
Let them have a look at [1]It shows a graph of the death rates for the past 3 years. This year is not a good year (to put it mildly)If they're Dutch, then they know what the RIVM stands for. For other...
show context + On: Latest EURO MOMO data shows excess all-cause mortality in so
show context + On: Latest EURO MOMO data shows excess all-cause mortality in so
In other words, the submission title is misleading: the effects of poverty are type of trauma. We're not talking about "too poor to afford the latest game console" here; we're talking about...
show context + On: Poverty, not trauma, affects cognitive function in refugee y
show context + On: Poverty, not trauma, affects cognitive function in refugee y
HN
Paper:https://srcd.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/cdev.1...If I'm reading the results table in the linked paper correctly, it seems that household wealth was only a significant predictor of ...
show context + On: Poverty, not trauma, affects cognitive function in refugee y
show context + On: Poverty, not trauma, affects cognitive function in refugee y
Are there similar calculations for European countries? Several countries are easing lockdowns based on the idea that the transmission rate has become manageable. I'd love to see how those numbers stac...
show context + On: The Metric We Need to Manage Covid-19
show context + On: The Metric We Need to Manage Covid-19
HN
Interesting article. In late March I built a simple SEIRD model for a few US states with python. It was very difficult to estimate R0. R0 is essentially Beta/Gamma, where Beta^-1 is is time between co...
show context + On: The Metric We Need to Manage Covid-19
show context + On: The Metric We Need to Manage Covid-19
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