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The princess cruise ship study also gave an IFR (for China) of 0.5%, and an early epidemiological modeling study put the symptomatic CFR at 1.4% which would imply 0.7% IFR assuming it's 50% symptomati...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
(Reposting my comment again here)This one's from a different company (BioMedomics) and it was a random test of people pulled straight off the streets. Happened at an entirely different geographical ar...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
Flu rates are based on all known knowledge, population testing, etc. We don't have that for covid-19. If you want a good apple-to-apples comparison of lethality of another pandemic, you need to find C...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
Flu is generally well under 0.1% of those infected on average. If you're comparing them you want to either include or exclude asymptotic people from both populations. "Symptomatic Illnesses" https://w...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
That 45 million in your first link is Symptomatic Illnesses which represent ~2/3 of total cases as Approximately 33% of people with influenza are asymptomatic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza ...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
It seems the CDC has different data depending on where you look. The 45 million / 61,000 numbers are here, for the 2017-2018 season, see Figure 2:https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.htmlAnd on ...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
HN
According to the CDC web site, those numbers are 35.5M flu cases and 34,200 deaths (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html), giving an IFR of more like 0.1%. Which would put COVID-19 at m...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
HN
Bear in mind that the CDC estimate of 45 million influenza cases[1] is the number of symptomatic cases, and therefore it doesn't really make sense to directly compare that with Covid-19 IFR rates calc...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
HN
> Here, it's closer to a random sample,
but more importantly it shows really
high rates. Those rates overwhelm any error
due to false positives.I'm not seeing that, at least not from what I've s...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
What I learned from an article of a major German newspaper is that in order to really estimate the quality of testing, two criteria are important: sensitivity and specifity of the applied test.If the ...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
At various points in interviews and articles he used Diamond Princess, South Korea, Germany, Iceland as strong evidence of miniscule fatality rates, in every single case selectively ignoring that dea...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
HN
Is there a write-up for this study? Or anywhere with data/methodology released?Also, is this particularly good news? Using the raw numbers from the headline and the deaths from here https://www1.nyc.g...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
This might be a bit blunt but I am not jesting - an article about disease testing that does not contain the words "false positive" and "false negative" in some form is literally no...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
Sweden didn't lockdown and might have herd immunity in weeks, according to their chief epidemiologist. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out in the long run."In major parts of Sweden, around ...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
HN
While this is great information, a few facts will still confound attempts to speculate based on this number:- The production of IgG antibodies is mostly delayed until after an infection is cleared.- T...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
It's actually important to point out, the CDC is very explicit that they are estimating flu illnesses, in their own words "an estimated 34 million people had symptomatic influenza illness"Ma...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
HN
In comparing the COVID-19 IFR to the flu IFR, it is important to remember that flu vaccines are widely available and limit the spread of influenza. For example, CDC retrospectives for 2018-9 estimate ...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
>In the general population overall, Covid is undeniably more deadly than the flu, but only about 3-5x (and I think 3x personally right now).I don't see how you get close to 3X more deadly than the flu...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
HN
> But to get from 7% (hospitalized to confirmed) to 1 in 500 is a factor of 35.This is broadly in the range implied by a number of measures across the entire population. 20x for randomized population...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
HN
In San Diego people under 30 are close to 20% of total confirmed and over 5% of hospitalized cases. About 7% of confirmed are hospitalized for this age group. Our positive test ratio is under 7%. Test...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
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