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I'll give you an honest answer, but well, it's obvious. Yes, it's a big threat, it's clear if you pay attention. It's killed more than 100k people, a lot more than an annual flue. It's a horrible deat...
show context + On: For experts who study coronaviruses, a grim vindication
show context + On: For experts who study coronaviruses, a grim vindication
Here's the cdc estimates used for modelling.https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...Their best guess scenario is 35% asymptomatic. Of the symptomatic the rate is 0.05% for those...
show context + On: Antibody Tests Point to Lower Death Rate for the Coronavirus
show context + On: Antibody Tests Point to Lower Death Rate for the Coronavirus
HN
Here is the link a meta analysis of IFR studies to date. possibly the one you referenced. Nearly every study to date has been in this range. Other reports have been based irresponsible pseudo journali...
show context + On: Antibody Tests Point to Lower Death Rate for the Coronavirus
show context + On: Antibody Tests Point to Lower Death Rate for the Coronavirus
HN
Here is a WHO report from February saying the same thing:> Modeling is a helpful tool to try to account for missed cases, such as those that are mild cases potentially missed in current surveillance a...
show context + On: Antibody Tests Point to Lower Death Rate for the Coronavirus
show context + On: Antibody Tests Point to Lower Death Rate for the Coronavirus
> 21000 deaths is not "near zero"I'm not sure what your contrived narrative is, but actually it is near zero, far less than several other causes of death. (The annual mortality rate is over ...
show context + On: Antibody Tests Point to Lower Death Rate for the Coronavirus
show context + On: Antibody Tests Point to Lower Death Rate for the Coronavirus
HN
There we go again. In NYC, 19 out of 100,000 people aged 18-45 died. (1)There are roughly 110M people in that age group in the U.S. so that would mean 21000 deaths if the virus would spread as widely ...
show context + On: Antibody Tests Point to Lower Death Rate for the Coronavirus
show context + On: Antibody Tests Point to Lower Death Rate for the Coronavirus
Thanks for the info.If those dates are correct for the first week of Jan., then the CDC was actually very aggressive for a govt. agency, since Wuhan was still trying to cover it up that week. (See lin...
show context + On: The CDC's Coronavirus Death Rate Estimates Are Too Low, Many
show context + On: The CDC's Coronavirus Death Rate Estimates Are Too Low, Many
HN
> The only rational option I see is Americans must be some of the healthiest people. Kidding asideThe US was fortunate to have considerable ICU capacity. That has kept the mortality rate far lower tha...
show context + On: The CDC's Coronavirus Death Rate Estimates Are Too Low, Many
show context + On: The CDC's Coronavirus Death Rate Estimates Are Too Low, Many
HN
The problem arises when people talk about a single "death rate" without the proper caveats. It is well understood that the infection fatality rate varies with age, from 0.001% for those unde...
show context + On: The CDC's Coronavirus Death Rate Estimates Are Too Low, Many
show context + On: The CDC's Coronavirus Death Rate Estimates Are Too Low, Many
Being that Alameda County (and neighboring Santa Clara County) have the highest number of COVID cases in the Bay Area[1], I would argue that their response was not overblown and likely had numbers to ...
show context + On: Tesla plans to build a new car factory in Texas
show context + On: Tesla plans to build a new car factory in Texas
The US is pretty close to a lot of the rest of the OECD in obesity rates (in particular, UK/Australia/NZ) https://data.oecd.org/healthrisk/overweight-or-obese-populat...) while costing twice what othe...
show context + On: America's Growth Ponzi Scheme
show context + On: America's Growth Ponzi Scheme
>In healthcare we have astronomical costs that have not bought us more vitality, but an extended morbidity. Gone are the days of grandmothers with sinewy arms maintaining huge gardens. Obesity in the ...
show context + On: America's Growth Ponzi Scheme
show context + On: America's Growth Ponzi Scheme
HN
That would be a valid conjecture if we didn't had the ONS data already there are virtually no additional reported deaths for that age group above what PHE reports:https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati...
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
> if you are under 45 and healthy your chances of dying from covid-19 are exceedingly small.Yes, I did say that.However,> as the ONS figures only a additionally include out of hospital deaths primari...
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
Not obvious this works though. 70% is herd immunity threshold when there is no epidemic. With an active epidemic it may be 95%.Here are some epidemiologists arguing that: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/...
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
HN
The comment above is overstated, but more or less correct. All the naive herd immunity calculations assume a well-mixed population. A large fraction of recovered and immune young people will protect t...
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
HN
Other highlights:Death rate for under-45 is under 0.024%Look at the "Deaths incidence" tab of the graphs at the bottom to see actual deaths with the curve-fit model.EDIT: Meant to include in...
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
HN
This is interesting ...The positive rate for those tested in the Bay Area started at 10% 2 months ago, but new test in past week are under 2%:https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx...
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1252698777296797698?s=21> If you're hoping a vaccine is going to be a knight in shining armor saving the day, you may be in for a disappointment. SARSCOV2 is a high...
show context + On: Instacart announces new Covid-19 policies and plans to hire
show context + On: Instacart announces new Covid-19 policies and plans to hire
HN
Here in Ontario, Canada we have an online food delivery service (https://grocerygateway.com) and they built a super-automated distribution factory to help run this (and all of their stores in the area...
show context + On: Instacart announces new Covid-19 policies and plans to hire
show context + On: Instacart announces new Covid-19 policies and plans to hire
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