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Herd immunity halts transmission after a point. The flu is between 33% and 44%. Covid-19 has some wide estimates for the threshold, between 29% and 74% according to the two studies referenced here: ht...
show context + On: U.S. Navy test shows 60 percent of carrier crew have coronav
show context + On: U.S. Navy test shows 60 percent of carrier crew have coronav
HN
The PCR test is a very specific test. A positive test means the RNA sequence of SARS-CoV-2 was detected. A negative test, however, would not be as strong of an indicator as false positive rates are qu...
show context + On: U.S. Navy test shows 60 percent of carrier crew have coronav
show context + On: U.S. Navy test shows 60 percent of carrier crew have coronav
Yes, higher dose/severity probably means more likelihood of detectable antibodies:https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.108308v1> These data show that systemic IgA and IgG production agai...
show context + On: U.S. Navy test shows 60 percent of carrier crew have coronav
show context + On: U.S. Navy test shows 60 percent of carrier crew have coronav
This probably under counts the true number of infection significantly.If the sensitivity/specificity of the test was similar to the paper below, true prevalence for the ship probably approaches 100%.h...
show context + On: U.S. Navy test shows 60 percent of carrier crew have coronav
show context + On: U.S. Navy test shows 60 percent of carrier crew have coronav
Heinsberg study suggests a mortality rate of about 0.36%. This is high, but not "a big threat". Given that with 0.36% and 15% infection spread in the general population (like flu) you look a...
show context + On: For experts who study coronaviruses, a grim vindication
show context + On: For experts who study coronaviruses, a grim vindication
I'll give you an honest answer, but well, it's obvious. Yes, it's a big threat, it's clear if you pay attention. It's killed more than 100k people, a lot more than an annual flue. It's a horrible deat...
show context + On: For experts who study coronaviruses, a grim vindication
show context + On: For experts who study coronaviruses, a grim vindication
Here's the cdc estimates used for modelling.https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...Their best guess scenario is 35% asymptomatic. Of the symptomatic the rate is 0.05% for those...
show context + On: Antibody Tests Point to Lower Death Rate for the Coronavirus
show context + On: Antibody Tests Point to Lower Death Rate for the Coronavirus
HN
Here is the link a meta analysis of IFR studies to date. possibly the one you referenced. Nearly every study to date has been in this range. Other reports have been based irresponsible pseudo journali...
show context + On: Antibody Tests Point to Lower Death Rate for the Coronavirus
show context + On: Antibody Tests Point to Lower Death Rate for the Coronavirus
HN
Here is a WHO report from February saying the same thing:> Modeling is a helpful tool to try to account for missed cases, such as those that are mild cases potentially missed in current surveillance a...
show context + On: Antibody Tests Point to Lower Death Rate for the Coronavirus
show context + On: Antibody Tests Point to Lower Death Rate for the Coronavirus
> 21000 deaths is not "near zero"I'm not sure what your contrived narrative is, but actually it is near zero, far less than several other causes of death. (The annual mortality rate is over ...
show context + On: Antibody Tests Point to Lower Death Rate for the Coronavirus
show context + On: Antibody Tests Point to Lower Death Rate for the Coronavirus
HN
There we go again. In NYC, 19 out of 100,000 people aged 18-45 died. (1)There are roughly 110M people in that age group in the U.S. so that would mean 21000 deaths if the virus would spread as widely ...
show context + On: Antibody Tests Point to Lower Death Rate for the Coronavirus
show context + On: Antibody Tests Point to Lower Death Rate for the Coronavirus
Thanks for the info.If those dates are correct for the first week of Jan., then the CDC was actually very aggressive for a govt. agency, since Wuhan was still trying to cover it up that week. (See lin...
show context + On: The CDC's Coronavirus Death Rate Estimates Are Too Low, Many
show context + On: The CDC's Coronavirus Death Rate Estimates Are Too Low, Many
HN
> The only rational option I see is Americans must be some of the healthiest people. Kidding asideThe US was fortunate to have considerable ICU capacity. That has kept the mortality rate far lower tha...
show context + On: The CDC's Coronavirus Death Rate Estimates Are Too Low, Many
show context + On: The CDC's Coronavirus Death Rate Estimates Are Too Low, Many
HN
The problem arises when people talk about a single "death rate" without the proper caveats. It is well understood that the infection fatality rate varies with age, from 0.001% for those unde...
show context + On: The CDC's Coronavirus Death Rate Estimates Are Too Low, Many
show context + On: The CDC's Coronavirus Death Rate Estimates Are Too Low, Many
Not obvious this works though. 70% is herd immunity threshold when there is no epidemic. With an active epidemic it may be 95%.Here are some epidemiologists arguing that: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/...
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
HN
The comment above is overstated, but more or less correct. All the naive herd immunity calculations assume a well-mixed population. A large fraction of recovered and immune young people will protect t...
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
HN
Other highlights:Death rate for under-45 is under 0.024%Look at the "Deaths incidence" tab of the graphs at the bottom to see actual deaths with the curve-fit model.EDIT: Meant to include in...
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
HN
This is interesting ...The positive rate for those tested in the Bay Area started at 10% 2 months ago, but new test in past week are under 2%:https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx...
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1252698777296797698?s=21> If you're hoping a vaccine is going to be a knight in shining armor saving the day, you may be in for a disappointment. SARSCOV2 is a high...
show context + On: Instacart announces new Covid-19 policies and plans to hire
show context + On: Instacart announces new Covid-19 policies and plans to hire
HN
Here in Ontario, Canada we have an online food delivery service (https://grocerygateway.com) and they built a super-automated distribution factory to help run this (and all of their stores in the area...
show context + On: Instacart announces new Covid-19 policies and plans to hire
show context + On: Instacart announces new Covid-19 policies and plans to hire
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