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> don't necessarily need shelter-in-place rulesIs there a cite for that? Because that's not the way the data looks.Everywhere was growing with roughly the same exponent before lockdown. The numbers ...
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
Indeed, if you look at CDC's cause of death numbers you will see they only list till 2017.https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htmhttps://www.cdc.gov/healthequity/lcod/At least tha...
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1250170016504430595@MarkLevineNYC
BREAKING: NYC publishes, for first time, data on fatalities that includes "probable" cases (those without a confirm...
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
I personally think we need a county-by-county approach. There is a high variation of the infection at local levels. All the news is currently about how bad New York is and it's true but we're not all ...
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
HN
Whenever I see the IHME charts[1] (which are great) I think “I wish I could see the what the model predicted before today's date so I can assess it.”This shows laudable transparency, in my view.(Also...
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
HN
https://i.imgur.com/dJ7kHch.pngIt's pretty sloppy to show surge capacity on the same graph as total hospitalizations, not active active hospitalizations....
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
A source for what you are saying is the linked SF article [1] which indicates that of ~3k evidently sick people with flu symptoms, 0.1-1% were confirmed to have COVID-19. Though note this is not rando...
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
Just in support of your argument, new data is showing that the fatality rate is lower then previously estimated, due to a large number of undetected cases.Just one example, tests of pregnant women com...
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
HN
That's almost certainly untrue. Recent studies have show that as many as 38% of the Italian population has been infected at this point [1]. That gives a fatality rate 0.03%. Let's say the official dea...
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
HN
What's your source for 2%? A recent study which was featured on Hacker News estimated the infection fatality rate at 0.66%. [1]I have seen a number of studies putting the case fatality rate at 2-3%, b...
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
That's a good question. If control measures are undertaken to "flatten the curve" down to the capacity of the medical system, we'd expect to see new infections per day and deaths per day le...
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
HN
That's because worldometer data is community reported. This data comes from the states (mostly):https://covidtracking.com/...
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
HN
Something weird happened in California, where 20% of their tests were coming back positive, then all the sudden 04/04/2020 they started seeing <10% positive tests:https://raw.githubusercontent.com/let...
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
HN
This entire plan is based on models that do not align with what we are seeing. The graph on slide two[1] of the official CA govt plan shows hospitalizations With Intervention rising exponentially, exc...
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
HN
> Another view is that opening the economy should involve testing people who are NOT symptomatic.Testing people with symptoms is a waste of tests. When tests are in short supply assume everyone with s...
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
There is data suggesting that the current number of recognized infections is just 6% of the total infection count. This also means that case fatality rates are vastly overstated, since the rate would ...
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
HN
I found a source[0]. Stanford was testing a larger population to get an estimate of the spread.[0] https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/04/04/stanford-researcher......
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
show context + On: California's Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
Too early to tell there.https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/virus-deaths-rise-sw...> For weeks, the numbers of COVID-19 cases and fatalities were proportionally similar between Sweden and Denmark...
show context + On: Latest EURO MOMO data shows excess all-cause mortality in so
show context + On: Latest EURO MOMO data shows excess all-cause mortality in so
Sweden is on the same track as Switzerland, but about a week behind. They will probably show up on the map in either 1 or 2 weeks.http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/...
show context + On: Latest EURO MOMO data shows excess all-cause mortality in so
show context + On: Latest EURO MOMO data shows excess all-cause mortality in so
Note that Euromomo reporting is seriously delayed for probably most countries. Here are Dutch numbers that include better estimates for week 14https://twitter.com/DToshkov/status/1249693421201129480ht...
show context + On: Latest EURO MOMO data shows excess all-cause mortality in so
show context + On: Latest EURO MOMO data shows excess all-cause mortality in so
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